“Rising electricity price” attack
Since late September, “power rationing tide” has affected many provinces in China. Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shanghai and other regions have successively started the adjustment of “rising electricity price”, allowing the transaction electricity price of coal power market to float upward on the basis of benchmark electricity price.
On July 23, the Inner Mongolia Department of industry and information technology and the national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on clarifying the upper limit of price fluctuation in the power trading market in Mengxi and adjusting the trading policies of some industries. It is stipulated that since August, the transaction price of coal-fired power generation in Mengxi power trading market can rise by no more than 10% on the basis of the benchmark price.
According to the analysis of CICC’s research report, Mengxi region takes the lead in clarifying the floating space of electricity price, which will help thermal power achieve profit margin improvement. This adjustment is also the first time to liberalize electricity price control after the introduction of “electricity price reduction” and floating electricity price policy since 2017.
According to the China Energy News under the people’s daily, on August 4, the development and Reform Commission of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region issued the notice on adjusting matters related to direct electricity trading in 2021, which adjusted matters related to direct electricity trading in Ningxia from August to December this year, and proposed to allow the transaction price of coal and electricity to rise no more than 10% on the basis of the benchmark price.
Subsequently, the Shanghai Municipal Economic and Information Technology Commission requested to further improve the “benchmark price + floating up and down” power market price formation mechanism and cancel the provision that the coal benchmark on grid price “will not rise temporarily”.
At the end of August, the Shanghai Municipal Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on printing and distributing the work guidelines for further standardizing the price behavior of non grid direct power supply in this city, further stipulating that the maximum upward floating range of power consumption price of non grid direct power supply end users shall not exceed 10%.
According to the Huaxia times, on September 24, Guangdong Power Trading Center issued the notice on improving the operation of Guangdong power market in the fourth quarter of 2021 (hereinafter referred to as the notice). The notice specifies that the monthly transaction price difference is allowed to be positive or negative, and the rise of electricity price will be transmitted to end users. It is considered that Guangdong power market is about to enter the stage of price rise.
Then, on September 27, Hunan development and Reform Commission issued the notice on improving the transaction price mechanism of coal-fired power generation in Hunan Province, which stipulates that from October, on the basis of determining the transaction benchmark price in the power market, the coal purchase price of coal-fired thermal power enterprises will be introduced as a parameter to adjust the transaction price ceiling according to a certain cycle.
The notice mentioned that a ceiling floating mechanism for transaction prices in the coal-fired thermal power market linked with coal prices should be established to reasonably reflect the cost of power generation and consumption and reduce market risks. At present, Hunan Province stipulates: “when the average unit price of standard coal to the plant exceeds 1300 yuan / ton, for every 50 yuan / ton increase in coal price, the upper limit of coal-fired thermal power transaction price will rise by 1.5 points / kWh, and the maximum rise range will not exceed the national regulations.”
The control of key provinces is difficult to stop, and the supply of chemicals continues to fall short of demand
In addition, Anhui, Fujian, Hunan, Guangdong and other regions have started power restriction measures, and 7-20 days of production suspension and restriction are generally arranged every month from October to December. The capacity of caprolactam industry chain in Fujian, solid epoxy resin industry chain in Anhui and ABS industry chain in Jilin will be reduced.
It is understood that the chemical industry in the above-mentioned areas that continue to shut down and limit power after the festival is relatively developed, involving a variety of chemical products. Under the strict power and production restriction measures, many enterprises have announced that they will not work overtime during the holidays, that is to say, the gap of these products is still growing after the holidays.
Before certain results are achieved in energy consumption control, it is difficult to resume production in the above areas, and the situation of short supply will continue to push up the prices of chemicals in relevant industrial chains.